I wrote, back in March, that international law died in Iraq and its body lies under the rubble in Gaza. We are now sitting down to the banquet of consequences. The warmonger Trump is now totally unrestrained. Over the weekend, he used his unbridled power to kidnap a foreign head of state in the dead of night, apparently killing about 40 Venezuelans in the process, following the months-long murderous campaign against Venezuelan boats. The holder of the laughable “FIFA Peace Prize”, who campaigned against the regime-change wars of previous administrations, is about to complete the first year of his four year term in office. During this, he has bombed Yemen, Nigeria, Somalia, Iraq, Syria and Iran, and now has added Venezuela to the list, trampling its sovereign territory to abduct its President. He has also supplied and supported Israel’s genocide in Gaza, undermined NATO, and made credible threats against Canada, Greenland and Cuba. If international law means anything, Trump should be indicted for the supreme crime of waging aggressive war; in 1946, several senior Germans were hanged for this. But, of course, it will not happen.
There is no clear plan to stabilise Venezuela, even by installing a puppet government, although Trump has made clear that he covets the country’s oil. If it proves to be the case that the US is making war to take over Venezuela’s natural resources, it’s pure gangsterism. If it is to dominate Latin America and turn the whole region into colonies of vassal states, that’s pure gunboat imperialism. But, what’s new about that?
What happens next in Caracas depends a lot on vice-President Rodriguez, and where she perceives her interests to lie. Fifty years ago, her father, the socialist guerilla Jorge Rodriguez, was tortured to death by the CIA-backed regime of Carlos Andres Perez; she may not want to become a new Perez herself. The billionaire-owned Western media spin the line that Maduro, and Chavez before him, were brutal dictators who have brought down the economy and are hated by the people, while Trump has charged Maduro with drug trafficking. None of these propaganda lines stand up to scrutiny; Maduro was authoritarian, but no more so than Trump himself, and the weakness of the economy owes quite a lot to US-imposed sanctions (in which we play a part – the UK has confiscated Venezuelan assets). While drug-trafficking activity clearly takes place in Caribbean-adjacent Latin America, the claim that Maduro was the kingpin of the trade is nonsense, and it will have to be seen what evidence is offered in any possible trial (or whether Maduro will be Epsteined in jail before it comes to that).
The apparent ease of the kidnap operation, and the seeming lack of any fight-back by Venezuelan forces despite months of increasing threats, suggests that Maduro’s abduction was accomplished with a good deal of inside help; clearly, the US forces knew where to find him. There’s a strong smell to this; maybe Maduro received an offer he couldn’t refuse, or maybe he was sold out by those around him. The rest – the Special Forces raiding party, dropping a few bombs – was just theatrical. We’ll see soon enough.
So, Delcy Rodriguez must act quickly to find out who she can trust, especially in the armed forces. The Maduro government may have been decapitated, but most of it is still in place. We will have to see whether the Venezuelan people unite to resist Trump’s bullying. Ultimately, the only people who should determine who governs Venezuela should be, the Venezuelans. Trump’s declaration that the US will run Venezuela and control its oil, and his threat to put “boots on the ground” to enforce this, will only endear him to would-be collaborators – the kind of people who would love to form a new corrupt, wealthy, ruling elite just like all the old ones. Other Latin American nations, especially Colombia, the biggest cocaine producer, and Mexico, the main route into the US for fentanyl, will have to consider their own responses. The Cubans, long used to American enmity and sanctions, would appear to be next in the crosshairs; we’ll see what they do.
Beyond the local consequences of the assault, the end of any pretence of the rule of law means that China has an effective green light to grab Taiwan (possibly by a similar kind of decapitation strike), and the US-led West has lost any grounds on which to complain about Russia’s land-grabbing in Crimea and the Donbass. The post-1945 settlement, enshrined in the UN charter, that aggression is a crime and that nations should not engage in conquest, is over.
Trump has demonstrated with the greatest clarity, that he is not restrained by international or domestic law. There is no international body – certainly not the UN – which can over-rule him or make him back down; nor are there wiser heads in Washington who could have given him pause. He has surrounded himself with think-alike, gung-ho, fellow warmongers who will justify his aggression and give him legal and diplomatic cover. So what if the Republicans lose the House in the mid-term elections? Trump ignores Congress anyway. He has realised that he can ride roughshod over the US constitution, start wars without Congressional approval, and rule by edict, and there’s nothing Congress can do about it. The constitution says that only Congress can declare war; hence, just start the war anyway and forget about declaration. Or, dress it up as a law enforcement action.
The world changed over the weekend, and for the worse. The imperative for Britain is clear; we must dismantle our over-reliance on the US, in all areas. We must determine to climb out of the trap of being America’s willing vassal. It took a long time to dig this hole, and will take a long time to escape, but first we must decide to do it. The BRICS countries and others, have made a start by reducing their dependence on the dollar and US-controlled payment systems; we should follow suit. Reform of the UN is long overdue.
Trump’s aggressive imperialism has been dressed up in the language of benevolent stewardship. I hear the echo of Kipling: Trump is picking up the “white man’s burden”, and will control, at gunpoint, the fate of his Latin American vassals, “half devil and half child”, until he considers them compliant and mature enough to choose again for themselves. Meanwhile, US oil companies will control Venezuela’s most valuable natural resource; although Venezuelan oil isn’t the great prize it might appear to be – it’s viscous, sulphurous, heavy stuff which needs specialised refineries and doesn’t produce so much of the valuable lighter fractions.
Trump is asserting the jurisdiction of US law outside US territory; this is nothing new, but (again, only if Maduro doesn’t go the way of Epstein) the legal arguments behind the action will have to be put before a court, and given the brazen illegality of all this, the only way that will fly is if the court is rigged in Trump’s favour, with a hand-picked judge who will do the government’s bidding. Either that, or Maduro is persuaded to make a plea bargain. Recall that prisoners from Afghanistan were held at Guantanamo, outside US territory, specifically to ensure that they could not claim the protections and rights available under the US constitution, but Maduro is in New York. Trump must be very confident that the judge will not throw the case out.
To the rest of the world, Trump is explicitly repudiating the postwar order, based on the UN Charter, which prohibits the use of force against other countries and outlaws occupation, land-grabbing, and interference in other countries’ political independence. He is saying, your sovereignty is conditional on acting in ways which are aligned with US interests; that your democracy exists only at his pleasure; that your resources are raw materials to be made available for US corporate interests. That your country is liable to be occupied and managed by the US and you will only be involved again in its governance once they believe you will behave properly.
All the empires which went before were based on this, and on the idea that conquest and domination are glorious. Since 1945, they’ve whispered it, knowing that it was shameful. Now, Trump is saying it out loud again. He claims a proximity-based right to govern another nation, and our government has failed to condemn this. Shame on him; shame on us. When will we have the chance to vote for a government which will not cravenly toe the American line? Our political elite are so wedded to the idea of the “special relationship” and the rewards of being the bully’s sidekick that they cannot see that it is in our long-term interests to stand up for international law. Does Starmer really think that the next US President will be someone like Jimmy Carter or JFK? We can’t wait and see. We need to find a backbone and make some better friends. What will we do when Trump seizes Greenland?
As for the future, it is highly unlikely that this decapitation strike will be swiftly followed by a new government with broad support, which will fix Venezuela’s problems and make everyone richer and happier. The history of regime change wars (think of Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Libya) is that a rapid tactical success is followed by chaos and years of occupation, eventually leaving another failed state which becomes a focus of regional instability. Never does it lead to great jobs, great public services, a plural democracy, and widespread prosperity. Venezuela is hard to govern, it has armed factions, militias, remote areas. Running it may be harder than the US thinks, the more so if the new regime is just extractive and local people stay poor.
But, this is the reality. The UN Charter and its ideals are no longer upheld, and there is no longer any pretence about it. The US controls the Americas; China will get Taiwan; Russia will hold onto the Donbass and control its neighbours. Each will stay out of the others’ patch: the US couldn’t stop China taking Taiwan anyway and has lost interest in stopping Russia in Ukraine. Israel will get the Palestinian territories and much else, under US protection, and Iran will be suppressed. Russia and China will be OK with this. Look at China’s response; they are “shocked” like the police chief in Casablanca. Welcome to the new rules; just like the old rules but with less hypocrisy. Don’t be “shocked”, this is what powerful countries do, and always have done. You don’t have to like it. Just ask yourself, where will it leave Europe, India, and Africa? Let alone a small island nation which still, foolishly, likes to cosplay as a great power.
Notes from Interesting Times 